Baby Booms: As Seen on TV?

By Karen Sternheimer

Babies and children are everywhere in the media world these days. From news coverage of the California octuplets and TLC unscripted television shows like Jon and Kate plus Eight, Table for Twelve, and Eighteen and Counting it seems like there are more people having super-sized families. Oprah recently featured the families of the Yearning for Zion polygamist sect and their multiple children. I started to wonder why there is so much focus on large families on shows like these.

A few questions came to mind:

1. Are we experiencing a new baby boom?
2. Are large families becoming more popular?
3. Are women having more multiple births (three or more babies per pregnancy)?

Let’s look at the data available to see if we can find answers.

1. Are we experiencing a new baby boom?

Thanks to the growth of social institutions, we can be fairly certain that most babies born in the United States will be accounted for. If they are not born in a hospital they are still likely to be given a social security number, so we can get a pretty good count of how many babies are born each year. In 2007, the most recent year for which we have data, the birth rate did rise slightly from 2006-- 1 percent to be exact. This was the largest number of births registered in one year in the United States.

If you take a look at the graph below you can best see this reflected in the top line, which represents the actual number of births, which is now even higher than the number during the postwar baby boom years.

Source: National Vital Statistics Reports, 2009

But before we get too carried away, look at the line below, which represents the birth rate per 1,000 women aged 15-44. A rate is a measure that takes into account the population size; since the population has grown we would expect more babies born simply because there are more people to have them. The birth rate tells us a slightly different story from the raw number above. It is far lower than the birth rate during the mid-twentieth century baby boom years, and is actually somewhat flat by comparison.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the average number of children per American woman decreased from 7.0 to 3.5 between 1800 and 1900. That rate declined until the baby boom after World War II (which you can clearly see in the middle of the graph below) and fell sharply in the years after. Since the mid-1970s that average has hovered below 2.0, down to an all-time low of 1.81 in several years (most recently 2007). In 2008 that number rose slightly to 1.86, but in no way does this change indicate another baby boom, at least not yet.

We can also look to see if women are having more children on average. Below is a graph that highlights the rise during the baby boom, which declined sharply after and has stayed relatively flat since. As you can see, women had an average of more than 3.5 children during the height of the baby boom years (yes, statisticians know there is no such thing as a half a person).

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1999

2. Are large families becoming more popular?

The data above can also help us answer the second question; the size of families has not grown in recent years, and if anything, households have fewer people now than in the past. Still, in 2006, more than 18,500 women gave birth to their eighth child or beyond. While this might seem like an incredible number of people having such big families, taking the population as a whole into account this means that only 3 in 10,000 births are to these super-sized families. The 2006 data are very similar to the 2005 numbers and the rate of 3 in 10,000 is identical. It might well be that large families get their own reality shows because they are such an anomaly.

3. Are women having more multiple births?

The birth of octuplets to Nadya Suleman sparked controversy about the problems associated with having so many babies at once. Multiple births, particularly carrying three or more babies in a pregnancy, can introduce serious health risks to both the mother and children. Stories about people desperate to bear children using new fertility technologies might suggest that this is a new and growing problem.

The graph below shows the tremendous increase in multiple births between the late 1980s and mid 1990s, as fertility technologies became more available. Also, a growing number of women now have children later in life; such women are more likely to need these fertility technologies and, even if they don’t, the likelihood of having “natural” multiples increases due to changes in an older woman’s cycle.

Source: National Vital Statistics System, 2009

The rate of multiples actually peaked in the late 1990s; the graphs above and below detail how they have actually been declining: by 16 percent since the peak in 1998. While in 1990 there were just 13 quintuplet or higher births, in 2004 there were 86 children in this category, declining to 68 in 2005. This decline is echoed in the graph below, too.

Source: National Vital Statistics System, 2009

So looking at the data we can conclude that there isn’t exactly a new baby boom, but instead a large demographic group, the children of the baby boom generation, are in their childbearing years now. Average family size isn’t growing either. And yes, women are more likely to have triplets or larger pregnancies now than in 1990 and before, but this rate is on the decline.

What other sociological reasons can you think of to explain the baby boom on TV?

Comments

[Ab Circle Pro]

great post and commenting. interesting how the numbers of births can shift so much during a seemingly short time span.

[Haley Browder]

I think the reason for all these TV shows featuring big families has nothing to do with the fact that people are having bigger and bigger families, I think its the opposite. People don't want to see and learn about what they already have, they want to hear about what they don't have. Most people have small families, therefore already know what that like. Having TV shows about such large families is more interesting to the average family because they've never experienced that.

[Alex Hill]

One reason I can think of for the rising frequency of shows with large families, at leas initially, was the spectacle. People were just not used to seeing large families like the Goslins, especially not in such an uncut manner. Now, with so many of these shows on the air, some of the fascination has wore off, but the intriguing difference of these families is still a huge selling point.

[Shelby]

I find this very interesting because it seems like there's so many bigger families in real life and in the media. However, there's not increase or decrease in the birth rate. But maybe there will be another baby boom in the near future.

[Madison]

Interesting post. I really thought that the birth rate would be higher. And it does seem like people are having more multiple births. I've seen it a lot lately with celebrites.

[ashlyn]

This is a very interesting post. Fertility rates are among some of the things I'm studying right now and it's amazing me that we might be going through another baby boom era with all the births and births of mulitples. I really think it has something to do with more people seeking fertility treatments. It just makes me wonder why more and more people are having problems getting pregnant that they need these treatments. I mean I know it's not their fault but is it genetic or something? I think thats the main reason why the fertility rates go up. I also think it's correct to say that fertility rates and the mortality rates for infants is increased and decreased by racial and economical issues.

[Breanne Badger]

I think that the population is growing yes but not every family is willing to have big families. Since there are so many diseases and the economy is bad people are afraid to have a big family. Also when a woman has a child they are facing a great chance of seeing death because anything can go wrong. So no there is no bay boom occuring some families just desire to have more children than others. An oddly enough it is true some women are having babies in there forties or later now.

[Loren]

It is interesting to see the recent baby boom that is being portrayed on television. I feel that you make a lot of valid as well as interesting points that I never took into consideration. The result of this baby boom is a mass pouplaiton growth. The expenses behind this population growth have been reason to fund more causes such as the urbanization of neighborhoods.

[Ariel]

I do think that we are expriencing another baby boom and the media is only helping that with shows about birth and pregnancy. This is causing the population to increase. I do not think, however, that women are having more multiple births at least not any more than normal.

[Taylor]

I think that we could possible be in another baby boom because more people are choosing to have larger families. I think that the tv shows about it add to this because people want to be like those they see on television.

[Taylor]

This article helped me understand the actual rate of births in the US. The US was thought to be in another little baby boom but in reality, we aren't. People are having the same number of births, and may be having more babies later in life. To explain the baby boom on tv, I think that maybe people want to advertise that they have 18 kids or had 8 kids at a time, but actually they are the outlier. Most families have 2-3 kids.

[Shayna]

Very interesting topic however with the population rising and more and more people being born do you think this will cause a problem for future generations? If the population grows and grows there may be limited resources in the future. I also find it strange that more families are larger like back in the day families some good examples of this would be the Dougers and like you mentioned Kate plus 8.

[Alexis]

It's crazy how many more births there are now. It seems like people just keep having more and more kids. A lot of the kids aren't very far apart either. I would think it would drive me nuts to have more than one baby around.