Trendspotting: Babies and the Economy

By Karen Sternheimer

Recently released data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show a decline in births in the U.S., down 4 percent between 2007 and 2009; births to teens aged 15-19 fell 8 percent during that time frame. CDC analysts examining 2010 data estimate that further declines in the birth rate are likely, as the graph below details. (Fertility rate refers to the number of births per thousand women, in this case those aged 15-44.)

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2011

Births to teens fell as well. Despite fears of a “pregnancy pact” in 2008, or that movies like Juno (2007) and shows like 16 and Pregnant and Teen Mom (2009-present) would inspire teens to get pregnant, we have seen declines in teen pregnancies, as the graph below details.

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2011

In fact, the teen birth rate is the lowest it has been in American history, at 39.1 per thousand in 2009. In contrast, in 1957 the teen birth rate was 96.3 per thousand. Most of the teenage mothers are 18-19-year-olds. In fact, a few years ago when teen birth rates rose after years of decline (see the slight bump around 2005 in the graph above), much of that rise was in the older teen group.

Births to young girls aged 10-14 (not pictured on this graph) are also at an all-time low, according to the CDC. “The 2009 birth rate for females aged 10-14 was 0.5 births per 1,000, the lowest ever reported and two-thirds lower than in 1990 (1.4). Moreover, the number of babies born to this age group has fallen to the fewest in nearly 60 years, to 5,030 in 2009.”

In fact, the only age group that has exhibited increases in fertility are women over 40. While the birth rate for women 40-49 was lower than any age group in 2009 except for 10-14 year-olds, the birth rate for 40-44 year-olds increased 6 percent from 2007, and births to women 45-49 years old—a group the CDC had traditionally not counted in fertility rates—increased seventeen percent during this time.

What might explain these trends?

Many personal factors play a role in whether or not someone gets pregnant. In fact, we might argue that this is one of the most intimate aspects of our lives.

But there are important sociological issues that influence when and why babies are born. One of the most important has to do with economic realities. When reporting on this trend, many news stories, like this one from CNN, highlighted the role the recession may have played in lowering the birth rate.

But what about the upward trend in births to women over 40? Aren’t they impacted by the recession too?

Ironically, it may be the financial stability of women over 40 that partly explains this trend. Advances in fertility medicine are likely helping many of these births, but these treatments can cost thousands of dollars. Having had the opportunity to advance within the labor force, this age group likely has resources available that younger women do not. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in March 2011, the unemployment rate for women aged 40-44 was 6.5 percent, compared with 7.6 percent for women 35-39, 8.7 percent for women 25-34, and 12.7 percent for women 20-24.

In her book Ready: Why Women are Embracing the New Later Motherhood, Women’s Studies scholar Elizabeth Gregory interviewed 113 mothers aged 35 and older, finding that many of her respondents report having stable careers and marriages, making childrearing more attractive.

As you can see from the graph below, there have been several dips in the fertility rate throughout history. Fertility rates fell during the 1920s, a time when the economy overall was strong and unemployment low. This was also a time when activists like Margaret Sanger promoted contraception and family planning, and the women's suffrage movement successfully lobbied for the right to vote in a push for greater equality.

Declines in fertility during this time might also be linked with growing urbanization, when more Americans lived in cities than in rural farming communities where having many children is economically necessary.

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2011

The start of the Great Depression and entry into World War II likely influenced the plateau we see in birth rates in the 1930s and 40s. Following the war, economic growth made it easier for couples to marry early and afford children. The midcentury baby boom ended in the mid-1960s, and American fertility rates have remained lower ever since.

What economic and sociological factors do you think help explain the relatively low birth rates over the past 40 years?

Comments

[KelseyBonesteel]

Interesting..."Teen birth rate is at the lowest it's been in American History"

[Lauren]

I think it's really cool that a lot of births can be almost directly connected with the economy and it makes a lot of sense. The lowered teen birth rate sounds like an improvement, but I also kind of feel that that depends on where you are. In certain areas there are going to be less births period than in others, because in some places it is more expensive to have children like in the city, just because everything is more expensive there, especially space.

[morgan]

I think it is great that teen pregnancy is the lowest that it has ever been. I thought that it would have increased because of how common tv shows like 16 and pregnant make it. I'm glad to see that it obviously has made it as normal as the show makes it seem. I was also shocked to see that more older women are having children. I think its great that they are waiting until they are financially stable. I think that is the way to go so they can give their children a stable life.

[Callie]

I think that this proves a lot of people wrong. People say this decade or past years have made an increase in births because of shows like Teen Mom and Juno but this shows that it is the lowest. I think that it shows that we are being more careful and that people are waiting till they can afford it and are ready to have a baby.

[Tony]

I think its really cool how the economy can have such an impact on pregnancy. Its cool to see how the economic boom after World War II, had such a huge impact on pregnancies. Inversely, an economic recession can cause the birth rate to be the lowest in history. I thought popular TV shows like 16 and Pregnant would have a negative, increasing impact on younger pregnancies, but it seems that it has very little importance.

[Lynnea Laessig]

I am surprised at the fertility rates between teens and middle-aged women. In my small area, many middle-aged adults (aged 30-40) are raising 16- 18 year old children. On the other hand, teens (aged 15- 20) are adding to our small area's populatiion rapidly. I was shocked to learn that the show 16 and Pregnant did not have the effect on society that I assumed it would. I imagined that this show would encourage more teens to have children, in hope of becoming more popular. I'm glad to see that this is not the case. Also, I think that more middle-aged adults are having children because of career and marriage stability. I believe that they have waited until these years of their lives to bear children in fear that the child would be raised in an unfair environment, as commonly seen with teen parenting. In conclusion, I believe that the drop in fertility over the past 40 years was due to fear in financial instability with a rapidly changing economy surrounding all of us.

[Abbey]

I'm 17, and a senior in high school, and I watch 16 and pregnant pretty regularly. I guess I kind of understand why people think that this show would make teens want to have babies, but if you really actually watch and follow the show you'll realize that it does the exact opposite in my opinion. As a teenager with all the pressures of school and college rapidly approaching you realize that a child is the last thing you want or need at this time in your life. The show actually does a good job of showing the harsh reality of teen moms. Most moms either don't finish high school, or have to finish early. A lare majority don't attend college, and quite a few basically end up being single moms with a minimum wage job. Obviously adults know all of these things are bound to happen, but for teens like me it's really an eye opener. It shows us that we should practice abstinence, and act carefully and responsibly. As a teen, if you really put yourself in one of their shoes and try to imagine how hard your life would become if you had a child, you'd realize that abstinence is the way to go.

[Taylor]

I am surprised that the teen birthrate is at its lowest. I do think that the show 16 & Pregnant and Teen Mom help with this. The shows do not glorify teen pregnancy, instead they show the struggles of it and how bad it can be. I also agree with you that the state of the economy is another reason the birth rate is down. Some people just simply can't afford to have a child right now.

[Aditya]

I think another factor that helped contribute to the falling fertility rates could be the increased education of women. After WWII, women began to have the same educational opportunities as men. Once women started to became more educated, they probably choose to put off child bearing until they felt comfortable with their career and until they felt that they could provide a stable home environment for them, all of which did not happen until their later stages in life.

[ashley]

I am surprised that there have been less births in the last forty years. I would attribute it to things like the economy and a more knowledgable teenage group. People do not want to have children when they can barely afford to feed themselves. Teenagers today have also mastered the uses of things like birth control and condoms. They do not usually make dumb mistakes any more and have unwanted kids. I think it is probably a good thing that the birth rate when down somewhat.
-Ashley Byykkonen

[Sam]

It makes a lot of sense that birth rates are tied with economic success and recession. People feel more comfortable to have children when they are financially sound but don't want to have children when they are struggling. I also think teenagers are becoming more knowledgable and aware of pregnancy, causing less teens to become pregnant.

[Lauren]

I was really surprised at the fact that pregnancy in teens is at the lowest it's ever been in the United States! It's very interesting that this is the case seeing that so many T.V. shows like "Secret Life of the American Teenager" and now "Make it Or Break It" (both appearing on ABC family) make pregnancy a main focus in their shows. I think that shows like "Teen Mom" and "16 and Pregnant" however do show the struggles that these young moms go through and encourage young girls to practice abstinence or at least pursue effective methods of birth control. It was also very interesting to read about how the economy affects birth rates. It makes a lot of sense that birth rates are higher in ages 40-44 during a recession. These women have had time to build up a economically stable life and would be more likely to feel secure in having a child. Thanks for your perspectives and these interesting statistics!

[Trent]

WOW! That's what first comes to mind when I see this data. Beforehand, I never would have thought that the economy has such a large effect on birth rates, but the data allows me to comprehend that. Also, a recent article I read for my online Sociology class helped me make sense of higher fertility rates in older women. The article explained how we are seeing a growing number of people living longer lives. Coupled with the data presented here about how women feel more economically sound to have children at older ages, and everything begins to make much more sense.

[Hannah]

Your insight as to why the fertility rate has drastically fallen. I agree that one of the major reasons that the fertility rate has fallen is because of the economy. Another thing that may have an impact on the fertility rate in the future is the infant morality rate. If the lack of children being born also has an affect on the percentage of the infant morality rate.

[Jacob]

I think that the whole main idea of teens not having pregnancies that much anymore is because of the cost of keeping a baby. You have to put in a lot of money into raising a baby and keeping it healthy and happy. I never would have thought that the economy would have this much of an effect on the rate of pregnancies in teens, but I guess I was wrong there. A lot of teen moms are struggling to make ends meet and I think that teens are finally realizing that, that is not what they want their life to be like. They want to be normal teenagers and they don't want to have to have a baby to take care of on the side. They don't have the time or money for that. Teenagers should just stick to being teenagers because the fun won't last for long.

[Jose Miguel]

I am very glad that today’s technology has given a better outlook on teen pregnancy. I believe that learning from the past mistakes can help future generations. Today’s media and computer technology is very informative for anyone to explore and learn more about birth control or teenage pregnancies

[Abigail]

The economy seems to be greatly influence the personal choices of men and women. In rough times, the choice to have a baby is paired along with the question: Can we afford to take care of a baby? Not only does this demonstate responsibility among our citizens, but it shows the growing trend of having babies later in life.

[Jane]

I found the data you reported surprising! I never had really thought to closely about why the rate would decrease so your article really opened up my eyes. I think that the progression of a women that has changed over the years has been a main influence. These days, it's not unheard of at all for a woman to go to a four year college, advance to graduate school and secure a highly successful job. If a divorce were to happen, a woman does not want to be uneducated and left without a solid background in the economy. She would not be able to efficiently take care of her children without lots of stress and worry. Women are taking responsibility and being proactive for the future, and if that means a lower birth rate at younger ages, I believe that it will benefit women. As for teen pregnancy, I believe that there is enough education out there about the stress that comes with teen pregnancy that prevention is a priority. Once again, interesting article!

[Heather]

Surprisingly, or perhaps not so much so, the teen pregnancy rate has decreased in recent years. I think I would attribute that to the unstable economic circumstances over the past few years, paired with the shows such as Teen Mom and 16 and Pregnant that most people thought would glamourize teen pregnancy. I think the shows probably were a good tool to help young women realize that it is incredibly difficult to raise a child before getting an education. It also makes sense that more older women are having more babies, considering the economy. At that point in their lives, women in their late 30s and early 40s are statistically more economically stable, while younger women are still trying to establish such stability.

[Lauren]

I believe the economic reason for low bitrthrates the past 40 years is that we have become and even more modern, industrial country. Before industry made up to bulk of the work force and people lived in urban area a large number of children were needed to work on the family farm or aid in other simple jobs. Due to a change in the economy, families have gained a more stability and thus do no need children to make an income, this has allowed families to be smaller and has ultimately dropped the fertility rate in our nation.

[John C.]

Having kids is expensive! Just thinking about putting them through college will make you think twice about having them.

[Tam]

Because our society is more modernized it makes sense that the amount of babies being born corresponds with the economy's well-being. Couples no longer have that pressure to have a lot of kids, because before people needed to have a lot of kids to help with farmwork. That philosophy is no longer practiced. Raising a kid is a lot of work and a lot of money. It makes sense that more are waiting until they're more advanced in their career and if it's a good time to have a kid (economy.)